{"id":33235,"date":"2026-03-10T15:50:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T05:50:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/?p=33235"},"modified":"2026-03-10T15:50:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T05:50:42","slug":"extreme-bushfire-risk-to-multiply-in-australias-eucalyptus-forests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/extreme-bushfire-risk-to-multiply-in-australias-eucalyptus-forests\/","title":{"rendered":"Extreme Bushfire Risk to Multiply in Australia&#8217;s Eucalyptus Forests"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Australia\u2019s most destructive fire weather conditions are on track to become more than four times more likely this century, with Tasmania and the temperate eucalyptus forests of southeast Australia carrying the greatest exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is according to a peer-reviewed study published this year in <em>npj Natural Hazards<\/em>, which used the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and an ensemble of dynamically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections to model how extreme fire weather will evolve under different levels of global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--1\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s44304-026-00193-9\">Click here to download the research<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Across Australia, once-in-twenty-year and once-in-fifty-year extreme fire events are projected to become 2.7 and 3.7 times more likely under 3\u00b0C of global warming. Whilst in southeast Australia&#8217;s eucalyptus forests those same benchmark events are projected to be 2.1-2.5 times more likely at the same warming level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tasmania faces the sharpest trajectory of any region studied.<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>Under 3\u00b0C of warming, 20-year return interval fire weather events are projected to become 3.2 times more likely, whilst 50-year return interval events are projected to become 4.1 times more likely. And even at 2\u00b0C of warming, Tasmania&#8217;s equivalent risk multipliers are 2.0 and 2.3, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The study, led by Ryan McGloin, warns that the Tasmanian findings warrant special attention, describing the projections as \u201cparticularly significant given Tasmania&#8217;s history of destructive bushfires and unique and vulnerable ecosystems that are potentially at risk of being replaced by more flammable vegetation when exposed to more frequent fires.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australia&#39;s most dangerous fire weather could become 4.1\u00d7 more likely by century&#39;s end. A new CMIP6 study warns Tasmania&#39;s eucalyptus forests face the sharpest trajectory \u2014 with spring burn windows shrinking across SE Australia. Full study \ud83d\udc47 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bfFBiubpUo\">https:\/\/t.co\/bfFBiubpUo<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hKDlHNwUQ5\">pic.twitter.com\/hKDlHNwUQ5<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WoodCentralAu (@WoodCentralAU1) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WoodCentralAU1\/status\/2031244448055845229?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 10, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The warning is grounded in history. The 1967 Black Tuesday fires killed 62 people and destroyed nearly 3,000 structures across southern Tasmania. Whilst in January 2013, fires razed 203 homes in the village of Dunalley alone. And unlike mainland forests, Tasmania\u2019s vegetation mosaic \u2014 fire-sensitive rainforests, alpine shrublands and wet forests \u2014 faces a feedback loop in which more frequent fires progressively shift the landscape towards more flammable, fire-adapted vegetation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A cycle, the authors say, has no natural brake.<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>The drivers differ by region. In Tasmania and southern Victoria, for example, projected increases in extreme fire weather are driven primarily by rising maximum temperatures, compounded by declining spring rainfall, which lifts the drought factor and lowers relative humidity on the continent\u2019s worst fire days. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the subtropical eucalyptus forests of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, increasing humidity associated with a shift towards positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode partially moderates the temperature impact, resulting in the study&#8217;s lowest projected increases. There, 20-year and 50-year return interval events are still projected to become 1.8 and 2.0 times more likely at 3\u00b0C \u2014 figures the researchers describe as not immaterial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"youtube-embed\" data-video_id=\"ZOUID754K8U\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"One year on, ABC News looks back at how Australia&#039;s Black Summer bushfire crisis unfolded | ABC News\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ZOUID754K8U?feature=oembed&#038;enablejsapi=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>It was a bushfire emergency on a size, scale and ferocity we have not witnessed in our lifetime. In January 2021, the ABC recapped the 2019\/20 Black Summer bushfires.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Spring has emerged as the season of greatest concern<\/strong>. Severe fire weather days (FFDI \u2265 50) are projected to rise substantially in north-western and central Australia, while Very High fire weather days (FFDI between 24 and 50) are projected to increase in both the north and south. The pattern points to an earlier onset and overall lengthening of the fire season \u2014 with a shrinking window for hazard-reduction burns, a direct operational consequence for fire agencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The study \u2014 authored by Ryan McGloin, Ralph Trancoso, Jozef Syktus, Rohan Eccles, Nathan Toombs and Andrew Dowdy \u2014 is the first to apply the latest CMIP6 downscaled projections under different global warming levels to fire weather extremes specifically for southeast Australia\u2019s eucalyptus forests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>For more information<\/strong>: McGloin, R., Trancoso, R., Syktus, J.\u00a0<em>et al.<\/em>\u00a0Substantial increases in the likelihood of extreme fire weather events for fire-prone ecosystems in Australia.\u00a0<em>npj Nat. Hazards<\/em>\u00a0<strong>3<\/strong>, 28 (2026). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s44304-026-00193-9<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Australia\u2019s most destructive fire weather conditions are on track to become more than four times more likely this century, with Tasmania and the temperate eucalyptus forests of southeast Australia carrying the greatest exposure. That is according to a peer-reviewed study published this year in npj Natural Hazards, which used the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30861,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"default","_twitter_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type":"default","_pinterest_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type_page":"default","_instagram_share_type":"default","_medium_share_type":"default","_threads_share_type":"default","_google_business_share_type":"default","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[50,113,85,84,54,83,45,44,59,31,56,82],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[70],"class_list":{"0":"post-33235","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-australia","8":"category-australian-capital-territory","9":"category-new-south-wales","10":"category-northern-territory","11":"category-queensland","12":"category-south-australia","13":"category-sustainability","14":"category-sustainable-forest-management","15":"category-tasmania","16":"category-top-stories","17":"category-victoria","18":"category-western-australia"},"authors":[{"term_id":70,"user_id":2,"is_guest":0,"slug":"jason","display_name":"Jason Ross","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/J-Ross-headshot.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/J-Ross-headshot.jpeg"},"0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":"","8":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33235","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33235"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33235\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33236,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33235\/revisions\/33236"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30861"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33235"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33235"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33235"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=33235"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}