{"id":32491,"date":"2026-02-09T14:53:28","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T04:53:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/?p=32491"},"modified":"2026-02-09T14:53:29","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T04:53:29","slug":"how-can-the-united-states-close-its-1-2-million-gap-in-new-homes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/how-can-the-united-states-close-its-1-2-million-gap-in-new-homes\/","title":{"rendered":"How Can the United States Close its 1.2 Million Gap in New Homes?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The United States is more than 1.2 million homes short of meeting demand, with the National Association of Home Builders warning that the world&#8217;s largest housing market by retail value is facing a structural shortage in house supply, which could take decades to unwind. <a href=\"https:\/\/eyeonhousing.org\/2026\/02\/the-size-of-the-housing-shortage-2024-data\/\">That is according to new data published by NAHB&#8217;s Eye on Housing<\/a>, which suggests the gap could close between 2026 and 2030, <em>contingent on sustained homebuilding activity.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the squeeze is most acute in single\u2011family construction, <a href=\"http:\/\/And whilst the percentage of timber-framed new builds remains steady, rising material costs and trade uncertainty are beginning to erode affordability. In March, the NAHB warned that proposed 15% tariffs on lumber\u2014part of ongoing trade negotiations with the European Union\u2014are already impacting pricing. Broader uncertainty around tariffs on drywall, steel, and aluminium has added an estimated $9,200 to the material cost of a new home. In response, 29% of builders have lowered home prices, and 59% are offering sales incentives to help move stagnant inventory.  Even secondary components such as cabinets, windows, doors, and trusses are affected. &quot;To account for the manufacturer's margins, sawmill prices for the lumber embodied in these products are marked up by the percentage difference between receipts and cost of goods in the wood product manufacturing industry,&quot; the NAHB noted. &quot;The bottom line is that changes in softwood lumber directly impact the price of a new home.&quot;\">which leans on timber systems for 93 per cent of new homes<\/a>, where a combination of restrictive zoning, limited land availability and labour shortages has created bottlenecks and pushed vacancy rates to levels not seen in decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the country&#8217;s tightest markets, the lack of available housing has led cities to operate with vacancy rates so low that even modest population growth puts immediate pressure on supply. Several California metropolitan areas, for example, including San Jose, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, and Los Angeles, have spent most of the past 20 years with vacancy rates below 4 per cent. Whilst in Chicago, officials say they need 40,000 more units to meet parity, with an additional 20,000 dwellings also needed in New York City and Philadelphia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"youtube-embed\" data-video_id=\"PhfYARIpF6Y\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Why The U.S. Can\u2019t Build Homes Fast Enough\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/PhfYARIpF6Y?feature=oembed&#038;enablejsapi=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Large homebuilders have used mergers and acquisitions to grow their positions in several key housing markets since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Footage courtesy of CNBC.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Can the &#8220;smarter use&#8221; of industrialised wood short-circuit the crisis?<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/sweden-perfected-factory-housing-now-australia-is-finding-its-own-way\/\">Last month,<\/a> Gary Fleisher, a U.S. based modular housing expert, said that prefab could help close the gap <em>if <\/em>builders were prepared to increase their share of factory\u2011built homes from less than 3 per cent to 15-25 per cent. To do this, Fleisher said, the value chain would need to accept that housing (and wood) is an industrial product. &#8220;That would be transformational,\u201d he said. \u201cNot Swedish\u2011level (which is more than 85 per cent), but meaningful, profitable, and scalable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf you want to understand Sweden&#8217;s success, follow the trees,\u201d Fleisher said, stressing that the Swedes invested heavily in engineered wood systems and precision manufacturing decades before most U.S. builders had even heard the term \u201cpanelization.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Small single-family homes (can&#8217;t) be treated as custom projects,&#8221; he said. &#8220;They must be treated as\u00a0products with options, much closer to manufactured housing thinking than American stick-built tradition\u2014except executed at a much higher architectural and energy-performance level.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;This matters because factories thrive on\u00a0repeatability, not heroics.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>To learn more about the push to embrace &#8216;industrialised&#8217; home building,<a href=\"https:\/\/modularhomesourcepro.com\/sweden-didnt-perfect-modular-housing-it-industrialized-homebuilding\/\"> click here for Gary Fleisher&#8217;s article on Sweden&#8217;s modular housing industry.<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The United States is more than 1.2 million homes short of meeting demand, with the National Association of Home Builders warning that the world&#8217;s largest housing market by retail value is facing a structural shortage in house supply, which could take decades to unwind. That is according to new data published by NAHB&#8217;s Eye on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":31515,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"default","_twitter_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type":"default","_pinterest_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type_page":"default","_instagram_share_type":"default","_medium_share_type":"default","_threads_share_type":"default","_google_business_share_type":"default","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[51,37,49,68,31],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[70],"class_list":{"0":"post-32491","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-americas","8":"category-building-and-construction","9":"category-residential","10":"category-sector","11":"category-top-stories"},"authors":[{"term_id":70,"user_id":2,"is_guest":0,"slug":"jason","display_name":"Jason Ross","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/J-Ross-headshot.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/J-Ross-headshot.jpeg"},"0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":"","8":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32491","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32491"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32491\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32495,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32491\/revisions\/32495"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31515"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32491"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=32491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}