{"id":19246,"date":"2024-07-22T11:48:12","date_gmt":"2024-07-22T01:48:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/?p=19246"},"modified":"2024-10-21T20:17:37","modified_gmt":"2024-10-21T10:17:37","slug":"chinas-timber-imports-sink-as-the-worlds-factory-slows-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/chinas-timber-imports-sink-as-the-worlds-factory-slows-down\/","title":{"rendered":"China’s Timber Imports Sink as the World’s Factory Slows Down"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It’s official. China is exiting log imports in a big way, taking 30% less sawlog in June 2024 (2,695 thousand cubic metres) compared to last year (3,837 thousand cubic metres).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is according to new data reported by China Customs, which reports that birch sawlog (from Russia) is down 41% to 79,600 cubic metres, and NZ radiata pine, which now makes up 46% of log imports, contracted 27%, from 1,710 thousand cubic metres to 1,255 thousand cubic metres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest data continues a long-term trend of softer imports, with China taking 13% less imports in 2023 (38,028.8\u00a0thousand cubic metres) compared to 2022 (43,603.9 thousand cubic metres).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"China\u2019s
According to new data produced by China Customs, China’s volume of log imports has been in decline for more than 12 months.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

“It’s important to note that China is coming off a peak in log demand that will likely not be matched for a very long time,” according to Rudolf van Rensburg, co-author of China \u2013 Forest, Log & Lumber Outlook – a 197-page report looking at supply log and lumber into the Chinese economy.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is China’s hot and cold lumber market in deep trouble?<\/h6>\n\n\n\n

In addition to softer log imports, China’s traders also take far less volumes of lumber. According to data produced by China Customs, timber imports were down 14% for June, and accelerating from a 7% drop for the April-to-June quarter – with Russian lumber now responsible for almost 46% of all lumber traded into China (or 3,228 thousand cubic metres out of 7,242 thousand cubic metres).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest data comes after the Chinese government released its latest gross domestic product (or GDP) numbers, showing that Chinese economic growth has slowed to 4.75<\/a>% compared to the rapid annual economic growth rate of 7 and 8% during the 2010s heyday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Chinas
Despite lumber imports increasing 5% from 2022 to 2023, Chinese traders are now taking less lumber amid concerns that the Chinese government could follow Japan into long-term decline. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

“This should be a wake-up call for Chinese economic policymakers. It should be viewed as confirmation that the Chinese economy is in deep trouble and that its economic growth model is now well past its sell-by date,” according to Desmond Lachman<\/a>, an expert in macroeconomic policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Unless the Chinese government introduces major structural economic reforms that encourage domestic consumer spending, China could experience a Japanese-style lost economic decade,” Mr Lachman wrote in equity markets publication Seeking Alpha last week.<\/a> “That could have major consequences for the world economic outlook given that China is the world’s second-largest economy and, until recently, was the world’s main engine of economic growth and its main consumer of international commodities.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"China
More than 46% of all Chinese lumber imports are from Russia. In April, Wood Central revealed that China is a “launching point” for Russia to bypass Western sanctions and infiltrate global supply chains, including the EU, which has had strict sanctions on all Russian and Belarussian forest products since mid-2022. (Photo Credit: FILE #: 186902872 via Adobe Stock Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

“The root cause of China’s present economic problems is the highly unbalanced economic model that it has pursued over the past 30 years. China excessively relied on investment in general and housing investment in particular to drive economic growth, adding that it has become overly dependent on exports and a steady supply of cheap labour from its agricultural sector.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about China’s log and lumber markets and its impact on the global supply chains for timber-based products, visit Wood Central’s special feature.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s official. China is exiting log imports in a big way, taking 30% less sawlog in June 2024 (2,695 thousand cubic metres) compared to last year (3,837 thousand cubic metres). That is according to new data reported by China Customs, which reports that birch sawlog (from Russia) is down 41% to 79,600 cubic metres, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19250,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[52,41,2,32,46,42,43,31,40],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[70],"class_list":{"0":"post-19246","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-exterior-wood-products","9":"category-featured","10":"category-global-news","11":"category-industry","12":"category-interior-wood-products","13":"category-structural-wood-products","14":"category-top-stories","15":"category-wood-products"},"authors":[{"term_id":70,"user_id":2,"is_guest":0,"slug":"jason","display_name":"Jason Ross","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/J-Ross-headshot.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/J-Ross-headshot.jpeg"},"0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":"","8":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19246"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19246\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19914,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19246\/revisions\/19914"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19250"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19246"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=19246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}