The NSW Government’s ambitious housing targets are facing mounting challenges, with timber shortages and rising costs threatening delivery timelines. The Minns Government has committed to building 204,300 homes across Sydney’s eastern and central suburbs by 2029 — an average of 34,050 homes a year, or 94 houses a day for six years.
Critics argue the pace is unrealistic given constraints on labour and building materials, particularly timber, especially after the Father’s Day announcement that more than 176,000 hectares of prime State Forest would be set aside for an enlarged Great Koala National Park. That decision, championed by Minister Penny Sharpe, will effectively shut off the state’s best source of architectural hardwood.
According to the Housing Industry Association (HIA), both softwood and hardwood are essential for construction. Timber needs vary across building types, with apartments and detached one- to two-storey homes requiring between 9 and 20 cubic metres of timber. The HIA states that, based on current estimates, the average amount of structural timber used in a traditional new one- to two-storey detached home is 14.58m. Approximately 68 per cent is softwood timber, and 32 per cent is hardwood timber.
Already blackbutt index has increased 46.5 per cent in nominal terms over the five years since June 2020, while the spotted gum flooring index has risen 39.8 per cent over the same period. These figures are indicative of broader trends in hardwood products.
In the same five years, Western Australia and Victoria closed their native hardwood industries, further tightening supply. In the past six months, hardwood prices have varied by just under 4 per cent across species — above the rate of inflation — and are expected to rise further depending on housing demand. By contrast, softwood prices have fallen in the same period, reflecting lower housing starts, as softwood is primarily used for framing.
A simple piece of mathematics suggests that the amount of hardwood needed for apartments for a two-storey house is 2.88 and 6.4 cubic metres. On the assumption that an average-sized native forest tree yields 0.5 cubic metres of architectural-quality timber, it takes one and a half to ten hardwood trees to build an apartment or a two-storey house.
If an apartment building has ten units, then fifteen hardwood trees are required for that one construction.
Past closures in Western Australia’s jarrah industry and Victoria’s mountain ash sector have already driven up hardwood prices. With 47 per cent of Australia’s hardwood now imported, reliance on overseas supply is expected to grow, adding further delays and costs. Imported hardwoods are often priced above Australian equivalents, compounding affordability pressures.
The NSW Government’s housing targets may prove difficult to achieve without a secure timber supply. As approvals accelerate, the question remains whether the state can deliver homes at the promised scale while balancing environmental commitments and construction realities.
