Africa’s forests have now passed the point of acting as a carbon sink, with new research revealing they now emit more carbon than they absorb. The research, led by the University of Leicester, shows that African forests lost an average of 106 billion kilograms of forest biomass each year between 2010 and 2017.
The international team, which included researchers from the National Centre for Earth Observation at the Universities of Leicester, Sheffield, and Edinburgh, used satellite and radar data from the European Space Agency (ESA) and thousands of field measurements to track changes in above‑ground biomass over more than a decade. Their analysis shows that Africa’s forests gained carbon between 2007 and 2010, but “extensive losses in tropical rainforest regions have since reversed that trend,” turning the continent into a net carbon source.
Most losses occurred in tropical moist broadleaf forests, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and parts of West Africa. And whilst some savanna regions experienced gains from increased shrub growth, these increases “were not sufficient to counterbalance the overall losses.”
According to Professor Heiko Balzter, a senior author of the study and Director of the Institute for Environmental Futures at the University of Leicester, the results are “a critical wake‑up call for global climate policy. If Africa’s forests are no longer absorbing carbon, it means other regions and the world as a whole will need to cut greenhouse gas emissions even more deeply to stay within the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change.”
Balzter also urged governments and financial institutions to scale up support for the newly announced Tropical Forests Forever Facility. He said climate finance “must be scaled up quickly to put an end to global deforestation for good.”
Last year, Balzter and co‑author Dr Nezha Acil presented their findings at the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil. “Stronger forest governance, enforcement against illegal logging, and large‑scale restoration programs such as AFR100, which aims to restore 100 million hectares of African landscapes by 2030, can make a huge difference in reversing the damage done,” according to Dr Acil, who said these measures will be essential in restoring the continent’s forests.
According to Dr Pedro Rodríguez‑Veiga, co-author of the research, the findings carry implications for the voluntary carbon market. “This study provides critical risk data for Sylvera and the wider voluntary carbon market (VCM), and shows that deforestation isn’t just a local or regional issue – it’s changing the global carbon balance,” he said, warning that if Africa’s forests become a lasting carbon source, achieving global climate goals will become increasingly difficult.
For more information: Rodríguez-Veiga, P., Carreiras, J.M.B., Quegan, S. et al. Loss of tropical moist broadleaf forest has turned Africa’s forests from a carbon sink into a source. Sci Rep 15, 41744 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-27462-3
